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Post by Mark B on Apr 20, 2024 10:22:11 GMT
My much deliberated Scottish GN picks.
Main bets Anglers Crag 13-1 6 places e/w Mr Incredible 8-1 5 places e/w My Silver Lining 16-1 6 places e/w
Plus a bit each way for
Iron Bridge 28/1 Broken Halo 40/1 Both 6 places.
A very open race, you can make good cases for lots as it’s shown with about 5 different favourites this week. I like a couple of outsiders at longer odds so added Iron Bridge and Broken Halo to my original bets.
Good luck all.
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Post by systemsman on Apr 20, 2024 10:27:52 GMT
Had another look using my own version of weight adjusted RPR and RPR V SNOR + 4 or more. But it was a rushed job looking at the last seven SN winners. In my system an adjusted RPR of 155 or better is needed 6/7 or 146 or better 7/7 (this is where we pick up too many possibles) Many are close but not perfect fits.
One stands out as a perfect fit: Inis Oirr
Stay Away Fay fits but carries 12.00
Beauport also fits but has RPR v SNOR +2 only.
My Silver Lining also fits but has a RPR and OR v SNOR +2 only.
If you use the lower weight adjusted RPR figure of 146 7/7 stat you get too many possibilities.
Many others are close (146 or better) so its not an easy race to find the winner and never has been. Fun bet only for me.
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Post by richmut on Apr 20, 2024 10:44:14 GMT
Scottish national picks Inis oirr win only Anglers crag win only My silver lining. Doubled with I am maximus Good luck all.
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Post by seventowers on Apr 20, 2024 10:49:56 GMT
I've actually had a bet on Autonomous Cloud this morning @ 20/1. Smacks a bit of Mighty Thunder in that he found Uttoxeter's 4m2f a smidgen too far but this slight drop below 4 miles on better ground could help him. Going on literal form there is no reason he should be more than 3 x the price of Git Maker given that he beat Super Survivor much more convincingly than Git Maker albeit on slightly more favourable terms. I haven't gone down the Sadlers Wells route enitirely.
For me
Autonomous Cloud @ 20/1 ew My Silver Lining @ 16/1 ew Iron Bridge @ 28/1 ew Inis Oirr @ 10/1 ew Beauport @ 20/1 ew
The one Mullins one I am a bit wary of is We'llhavewan. I just don't know what improvement he could have in him for going this way around, which despite having won right handed, I think he really wants. If he translated that Navan hurdle form to fences he'd be a real danger.
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Post by venture62 on Apr 20, 2024 10:52:59 GMT
2 bets,but not with real confidence, Ontheropes just because his kerry national win was very quick and on a par with tiger rolls,just hoping willie has got him back to some sort of fitness Egbert because I like Alan King and he has a decent places record in this race
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Post by moreen on Apr 20, 2024 11:17:02 GMT
2 bets,but not with real confidence, Ontheropes just because his kerry national win was very quick and on a par with tiger rolls,just hoping willie has got him back to some sort of fitness Egbert because I like Alan King and he has a decent places record in this race This race means a lot to Alan King. I remember how emotional he was when he won it ten years ago.
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Post by mikecampo13 on Apr 20, 2024 11:17:32 GMT
Autonomous cloud @ 20/1 EW Mr incredible @ 8/1 EW Broken Halo @ 50/1 EW Elvis Mail @ 50/1 win Enis Oirr @ 10/1 EW
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Post by lescargot on Apr 20, 2024 12:46:06 GMT
FIRST SATURDAY RACE 2023-Winning time: 3m 53.73s (fast by 0.27s) GOOD FIRST SATURDAY RACE 2024-Winning time: 4m 4.73s (slow by 10.73s) SOFT 54-61 LENGTHS SLOWER
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Post by Mike N on Apr 20, 2024 12:59:46 GMT
Horses that have done well on nice ground have won the chases so far.
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Post by happymedium on Apr 20, 2024 13:17:49 GMT
My team:
Spanish Harlem Git Maker My Silver Lining Tommie Beau
All at home on testing ground but all won (or near-missed in Spanish Harlem's case) on Good. Hopefully not all will be inconvenienced if it's riding like GS. Good luck all. Should be a belter.
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Post by blaklion on Apr 20, 2024 14:33:28 GMT
Elvis Mail @40/1 ew Inis Oirr @ 20/1 ew Ballygrifincottage @ 12/1 ew We'llhavewan @33/1 ew
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Post by happymedium on Apr 20, 2024 14:48:59 GMT
It's probably unlikely (he is 33/1) but it would sum up Henderson's luck this season if Surrey Quest went and won! A bit like I Am Maximus, he does have an absolutely stellar pedigree. Group 1 winners everywhere. Close!!!!
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Post by lescargot on Apr 20, 2024 14:50:24 GMT
Just pipped with my Surrey quest 40/1 ew.
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sampy2
Junior Member
Posts: 66
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Post by sampy2 on Apr 20, 2024 14:50:30 GMT
Oh so close
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Post by Mike N on Apr 20, 2024 14:55:39 GMT
Willie Mullins does it again.
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