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Post by systemsman on Apr 22, 2024 17:27:17 GMT
Going to have to double check out every single Mullins runner for sure!!!!
Should have some answers by Wednesday.
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Post by Mike N on Apr 22, 2024 18:55:55 GMT
MIke N can we have a page for the Sandown Bet 365 which I am currently working on (which I did'nt have time to do it properly for the Scots Nat) using a version of my GN system modified for the Bet 365 (always a better/safer bet than the Scot National).
Just use this thread for your race thoughts, it's fine. |
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Post by lescargot on Apr 22, 2024 21:35:35 GMT
MY 4 FOR THE 365 ARE: Minella Cocooner ( well done on those big odds u got_ I'am looking at 10/1now so will wait untill thursday
Kitty's The goffer 33/1 is Seven's courtland going to run 80/1 - backed it for the scottish -only a few quid!!
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Post by Mike N on Apr 23, 2024 13:22:19 GMT
Bet365 Gold Cup confirmations... Threeunderthrufive Does He Know Sam Brown Minella Cocooner Le Milos Nick Rockett The Goffer Kitty’s Light Kinondo Kwetu Annual Invictus Amirite Aime Desjy Courtland Slipway Rapper Fortescue Certainly Red Farceur Du Large Guetapan Collonges Enrilo Bangers And Cash Weveallbeencaught Flash Collonges Flash De Touzaine Full Back We’llhavewan Your Own Story Magna Sam Bit obsessed with this Kinondo Kwetu horse so have to back it! If the clerk of the course would let horses run on proper good ground then Kinondo Kwetu would be a player imo. Unfortunately for him they are watering at Sandown even though some rain is expected 3 days straight up to the race. All depends on how much they get. Even good to soft is usually too soft for Kinondo Kwetu. |
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Post by Mark B on Apr 23, 2024 14:45:18 GMT
There’s a definite difference with the weather forecasts again. The met office have very little rain until Saturday and then a chance of a small amount mid afternoon. The bbc have rain forecast for Thurs/Fri and Saturday.
I’m hoping that a combination of wet weather and watering doesn’t make it too soft for Kitty’s.
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Post by systemsman on Apr 23, 2024 16:15:43 GMT
Here is my take on the Sandown Bet 365 HC on Saturday.
The long list using my weight adjusted rating only (my own ratings) requiring the correct adjusted RPR score in one of the last three runs.
If correct the winner should be in this longer list - adjusted RPR only considered.
Only looked at those on 50/1 or less (will check the others alter and amend if needed).
Seven against the field.
Kittys Light4
Threeunderthrufive7 (note no runner on 12.00 has won the Bet 365 since 1973).
Nick Rockett9
Minella Cocooner10
Annual Invictus25
Does He Know25
Sam Brown33
Certainly Red50
Note: the last five Bet 365 winners have been 16/1 or less at the off.
Using adjusted RPR's and nine major stats in total I get this league table.
Maximum points = 9
My top six:
1. Kittys Light 4/1 9 from 9 a perfect fit (but as a past winner if would have a high score).
2. Annual Invictus 25/1 8.5/9
3. Threeunderthrufive 7/1 7.5/9 (12.00 !!!)
3. Your Own Story 16/1 7.5/9 (but not in that essential adjusted RPR list above, falls four points short)
5. Minella Cocooner 10/1 7/9
5. Kinondo Kwetu 16/1 7/9 (but not in that essential adjusted RPR list above, falls 2 points short)
Note: highest recent weight winner was Tidal Bay in 2012 on 11.12. You have to go back to 1973 to find a 12.00 winner - Charlie Potheen.
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Post by blaklion on Apr 23, 2024 20:04:39 GMT
For the Bet365 I have found a six stat system based on the last 10 runnings. Because my stats worked so well on the Scottish National... (also have to hold my hands up there for suggesting We'llhavewan as a good stats horse - I accidentally based stats on his hurdles form rather than his chases).
9/10 winners scored at least 5/6 in this. The stats are:
Aged 7-9: 100% winners; 27/40 (67.5%) making the first 4; 117/173 all runners (67.63%)
Career Best RPR at least 5lb higher than OR (or 3lb if in current season): 100% winners; 39/40 placed (97.5%); 144/173 all runners (83.24%)
Season Best RPR at least 3lb higher than OR: 90% winners (Henllan Harri in 2015 the only to fail this); 32/40 placed (80%); 111/173 all runners (64.16%)
No more than 12 chase starts: 90% winners (Kitty's Light last year the only to fail); 30/40 placed (75%); 94/173 all runners (54.34%)
Best weight adjusted RPR 162+: 80% winners (Step Back in 2018 and Henllan Harri the year before the only to have failed this); 32/40 placed (80%); 113/173 all runners (65.38%)
Won in current season: 80% winners (failed by The Young Master in 2016 and Just A Par the year before); 26/40 placed (65%); 116/173 all runners (67.05%)
Only Henllan Harri in 2017 failed more than one stat. Those meeting at least 5/6 this year are:
Does He Know 6/6
Kinondo Kwetu 6/6
Annual Invictus 6/6 (but he was also 5/6 last year and only finished 6th. His form at 26f+ reads 768 so probably give this one a miss)
Minella Cocooner 5/6 (adjusted RPR too low)
Nick Rockett 5/6 (adjusted RPR just too low at 161, but arguably bigger concern is that he looked a non-stayer in the Irish National over this trip, albeit that was on heavy ground)
Courtland 5/6 (14 chase starts, but at 80/1 looks value for money. His season best RPR is 9lbs better than his OR - bigger than anything else in the race - and he's clearly a summer horse).
And then of course there's Kitty's Light, who's had too many chase starts - but then that was true last year too - and hasn't won this season - but largely running over inadequate trips, often over hurdles - and ran well in the GN on ground softer than he'd like and you'd say is almost certain to be involved at the business end in a race where horses often run well multiple times.
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Post by mikecampo13 on Apr 24, 2024 9:15:17 GMT
Skelton's Hennessy and course winner Le Milos maybe worth a second look. Only campaigned over hurdles this season, it is still lightly raced in chases and may be better than shown so far. Has the look of a late season plot but has been backed in the last couple of days. I took a bit of EW at 9/1 yesterday, but had been hoping to back it after the final decs at a much bigger price
I'm hoping it will drift again on the day.
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Post by superkeno13 on Apr 24, 2024 10:05:04 GMT
I've backed 2 for the Bet365
Kittys Light 8/1 (backed him early last week)
Kinondo Kwetu 16/1
Would have backed Desertmore House too if he hadn't been withdrawn 😕
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jj
New Member
Posts: 44
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Post by jj on Apr 25, 2024 12:17:33 GMT
Skelton's Hennessy and course winner Le Milos maybe worth a second look. Only campaigned over hurdles this season, it is still lightly raced in chases and may be better than shown so far. Has the look of a late season plot but has been backed in the last couple of days. I took a bit of EW at 9/1 yesterday, but had been hoping to back it after the final decs at a much bigger price I'm hoping it will drift again on the day. Agree, he looks tailor-made for this. Skelton may have finally got one right. |
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Post by mikecampo13 on Apr 25, 2024 16:15:38 GMT
My final Three:
Le Milos
Minella Cocooner
Enrilo
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Post by Mark B on Apr 25, 2024 17:05:12 GMT
My final Three: Le Milos Minella Cocooner Enrilo Think they’ve all a decent chance Mike , Enrilo has a nice low weight, and has form at the track from a couple of years back, despite the messy finish. |
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Post by mikecampo13 on Apr 25, 2024 19:06:42 GMT
Thanks Mark
This was one of my most successful races for over a decade but have had no joy for the last three years, so not too confident.
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Post by Mark B on Apr 25, 2024 20:43:37 GMT
Thanks Mark This was one of my most successful races for over a decade but have had no joy for the last three years, so not too confident. My record isn’t great, although I thought last year was pretty straight forward. Yeah it’s definitely a difficult one and can throw up some strange winners. |
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Post by seanyhillboy on Apr 26, 2024 19:09:12 GMT
Of the ones coming out well from some of the teams statistical/trend analysis, there’s none under 11st. How big a factor, if at all, does weight tend to play in this one?
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